Day 326

 January 30, 2021

The Waiting is a song by Tom Petty. Some of the lyrics are: 

"The waiting is the hardest part

Every day you see one more card
You take it on faith, you take it to the heart
The waiting is the hardest part"

The song is about love, but these words seem to be relevant to many people these days. As I talk with colleagues and friends and family the conversation is initially consumed by the current state of our pandemic world, but eventually the glimmer of hope shines through in words...words with hope that things will one day be as they were before March 12, 2020. Before the world was shut down by an invisible virus that has to this date infected some 102,848,125 people and taken the lives of  2.2 million.

As these graphs show we have not done a good job of preventing the transmission of the virus or the virus was too powerful, too widespread and too easily transmitted. Either way this graph tells the story.

So we wait. We hope. Some pray. The waiting, is indeed, the hardest part. This is not to discount the suffering many have gone through and continue to go through, but they are waiting too. 

Waiting for change and safety and freedom. Waiting for a not-so-distant past to once again be our future.

There is good news on the horizon as vaccines continue to be distributed and new vaccines are being created (Johnson and Johnson being the latest). The latest daily numbers are decreasing and many governments are taking the virus more seriously and restrictions are helping. Ultimately, it may be up to us. The reason the virus spreads is human transmission. Can we do more to stop the spread?

If you believe you can then you will, but there are those who are in a different category. These are people who either do not feel the virus is that bad (no worse than the flu) or frankly not real. Those that fall under this heading are being fed misinformation or believe the conspiracy theorists or are gathering information from social media rumors.

This must be taken into account when we realize we are all in some way fighting this virus or spreading it. According to an article in the Scientific American, "experts suggest that what happens next depends on both the evolution of the pathogen and of the human response to it, both biological and social."

No matter your opinion on the virus it will continue until one of several things occur. These are some of the possibilities:

Herd immunity: Most people contract the virus and become immune, thus making it unlikely to spread amongst the few who are not immune. "Ultimately, in most cases, antibodies developed by the immune system to fight off the invader linger in enough of the affected population to confer longer-term immunity and limit person-to-person viral transmission. But that can take several years, and before it happens, havoc reigns." -The Scientific American

Containment: This is the one that depends on may factors such as the noted above the evolution and transmission of the virus and the response by humans. The original SARS outbreak was contained and resulted in some 8,000 cases and some 770 deaths. That virus did show symptoms quicker and people were less contagious early on. Once they were symptomatic they were quarantined thus helping containment. 

Vaccine effectiveness: The vaccine does its job and enough people develop immunity long enough to stop the transmission of the virus.

Because the end relies on roughly 50% social-political influence and 50% scientific (vaccine) the end will probably not really be an end. 

Meaning the virus will survive, but not as a global plague. 

Yes, one day the pandemic will end. The virus will stay. For many of us we may never be infected, but all of us are affected.  The year 2020 has left its stamp on us and each time a new virus strain is found some panic will breathe its way into our hearts and minds. 

Maybe we will learn from this, maybe not. 

Either way, our current reality is waiting. And then, accept the outcome and when the restrictions are lifted and the pandemic officially ends be mindful of the lessons learned and take better care to prevent transmission of any kind. By being smarter and healthier. By taking better care of each other.